MILLENISM

Now until the End

Tag: Brexit

The Rainy Hills Of Dover

During a walk with my son Edison in Dover, Kent on 13/12/20 I talk about the United States elections, the forthcoming transition of the United Kingdom from the European Union and calls for tougher restrictions to control Covid-19 during the festive period.   Meanwhile, Edison finds a shelter and makes the most of the Autumn weather.

Walking The White Cliffs Of Dover

During my walk along the White Cliffs from Dover to St. Margarets Bay on 09/09/20 I talk about the continual impact of Covid-19 and speculate about future changes to the world financial system.

Bridges, Diggers & Future Uncertainty

During my walk with my son Edison on 14/08/20 I talk about how November may be a key month & look at the preparations being made for the next stage of Britain’s transition to exit the European Union.

Brexit Day

So today at 11pm the United Kingdom will leave the European Union.  A historic day which has been marked with mixed celebrations across the country and the minting of a new 50 pence piece.  But what does it mean in reality?

In essence, very little will change in the coming months as the UK moves through its transition period to December 2020.  No longer will the UK have voting rights in the Council or have MPs sitting in the European Parliament but the major issues of the free movement of people and goods will continue undisturbed until a withdrawal agreement is agreed.

I had written previously that I would be surprised if by January 31st 2020 a true Brexit had taken place and much work is still required.  I argue that so far all this step has really achieved is the partial appeasement of the conflictive and emotional situation which has divided the British public since the referendum of 2016.   Due to a Conservative majority in Parliament Boris Johnson will be confident that he can push through Brexit to completion but some important issues still need to be agreed and it remains unknown whether significant changes regarding immigration or trade will take place.

Thus, eleven more months of political debate and negotiation is on the horizon and despite today’s billing as the day the United Kingdom leaves the European Union, ‘Brexit Day’ is just another chapter in this long running saga.

Refugee Tales 2019 Part 2

Monday 8th July 2019

Alfriston – Eastbourne (by foot) – Ashford (by train)

Three pints of IPA following the event the night before had encouraged my decision to sleep outside under the stars.  It was peaceful and liberating but waking up cold was not ideal and it wasn’t the wisest thing because I lay close to the River Cuckmere  – so the mist at dawnbreak was felt by my lungs and subsequently my throat and voice.  It improved during the morning yet I was hoarse again by the afternoon.

After an enjoyable breakfast of granola, yogurt, milk and two coffees we headed off alongside the river.  I spoke to one of the Trustees of Gatwick Detainees Welfare Group (GDWP) about the funding they had received to support this project, the great volunteer support (70+ people assisting along the way) and how the idea had flourished from a book, to a walk to live literary and music events.

As we walked on, across undulating fields past sheep and through woodland I spoke to a volunteer about their experience visiting detainees at Bridge House, a detention centre near Gatwick Airport.  One of the key expectations GDWG has of its volunteers is that they turn up for every appointment they make without fail, as the detainees have often been let down so much throughout their lives.  The volunteer explained to me how he visited a detainee once a week for one hour and they were now participating in the walk.  For the detainees his visits raised morale, helping them to remember that they hadn’t been forgotten and there was someone there for them.

After lunch where I rested and relaxed in the sunshine we walked up onto the South Downs Way with magnificent views of the emerald English Channel.  I spoke with a French academic who had lived in the UK for twenty years and recently applied for a British passport due to her worry about Brexit.  As we walked and talked I learnt how she felt the United Kingdom (UK) leaving the European Union (EU) was like a marriage, the UK had signed up to the rules and couldn’t now just leave expecting that the last 30 years did not count.  Her view was that the British contingent involved in the negotiations had been extremely naive and unaware of how entwined EU and UK law was.  She also suggested an answer to why people chose the UK as their country of destination – colonialism, a historic connection similarly to how a person from the Congo may choose France.  This combined with other family members or friends indicated to me why the UK would be some asylum seekers preferred location.  I also learnt about Theresa May’s Guardian interview in 2012 about making the UK a hostile environment for illegal migrants.  As a Brit I associated the government with encouraging diplomatic relations with people of all nations so found this quite surprising.

We also discussed how psychologically when you make a decision about something, in particular when you have voted for something you gain a strong attachment to it being right.  This helps explain people’s staunch views on the subject of Brexit.  Of course, hopefully all people can be wise and rise above any conflicting views leading to civil unrest.

Refugee Tales walkers along the South Downs Way

As we walked past Beachy Head I learnt how one of the hopeful refugees had acted as a father figure to another young man from his country whilst they awaited the British system to make a decision on his immigration status.  Throughout the weekend I had seen the great connection between the group travelling with us.   I continued to converse with interesting people before having to divert towards the train station to head home.  The rest of the party would continue on to Hastings in two days time. 

As my train left Eastbourne I reflected on what had been a fantastic experience.  Undoubtedly the movement was a powerful demonstration of support for the call to an end to indefinite detention and there was a real feeling of community between the organisers, refugees/asylum seekers, walkers and volunteers.  Walking and talking together side by side was an effective way of communicating with each other and was something I had thoroughly enjoyed; I plan to attend again next year. 

Brexit Flextended

So today was the day that the United Kingdom (UK) was set to leave the European Union.  British Prime Minister Boris Johnson said that the UK would be leaving with or without a deal and he would rather be “dead in a ditch” than agree a Brexit extension.  Yet a (fl)extension has been granted for the UK to leave on or before 31st January 2020.

I had written previously that I was sure there would be plenty of twists and turns ahead and there have been many.  The prorogation of parliament, it’s subsequent appeal and reinstatement, the passing of the Benn Act making it illegal for the UK to leave without a deal, a new deal being agreed with the EU, Parliament passing an amendment witholding support until full legislation of the withdrawal agreement has been scrutinised and now the announcement that a general election will take place on December 12th.  Much debate has been held, emotions fraught and column inches written and the forthcoming General Election is now a potential roadblock to prevent Brexit from ever taking place.

There have even been difficulties in agreeing the General Election date, with some politicians unhappy about a winter election.  What is clear is that there are many politicians who are trying to stop Brexit (486 politicians want to remain opposed to 160 to leave was a meme I saw recently) and so far they have succeeded,  twice.

Thus overall, since my last post on the subject in August I feel that the likelihood of Brexit taking place has decreased.  Although it is difficult to predict, my view remains that by the beginning of February a true Brexit will not have taken place and for now, the saga continues.

Brexit Update

I haven’t written in a while so thought it was time to update following some developments regarding Brexit.

First, a comment made by by Noel Gallagher, singer, songwriter & musician from the band Oasis to the Manchester Evening News:

“There’s only one f***ing thing worse than a fool who voted for Brexit.  That’s the rise of the c*** trying to get the vote overturned”.

Certainly, the subject of Brexit is a very emotive and divisive topic.

Moving on, I predicted in May 2019 that pressure would increase on British PM Theresa May so much so that a second referendum or “People’s vote” would be called.   Although pressure increased on Theresa May, events have occured differently and instead she felt the need to resign.  Following a leadership vote within the Conservative Party the United Kingdom now has a new Prime Minister, Boris Johnson who says he will deliver Brexit on October 31st 2019.

Johnson speaks defiantly that a ‘no deal’ scenario is the government’s default position and Brexit will be achieved, yet, regrettably, so many politicians do not fulfil the promises they make when coming to power.  If Brexit does happen we also do not know yet whether it will be ‘hard’ (changes to Immigration Rules and leaving the Customs Union) or ‘soft’ (with superficial changes made only).  My opinion remains that a soft Brexit will take place regardless of whether a deal is made or not.

If a deal is made I expect to see Boris Johnson praised whilst if a ‘no deal’ does happen then I expect any negative consequences to be used to influence public opinion for a deal to be made.  if this occurs I expect Boris Johnson to be lauded as a saviour for turning things around.

Personally, there seems too much at stake for the financial centre in the City of London for the politicians to risk a ‘no deal’ scenario which is why I still believe a solution will be found; however I have been wrong before (like so many I never saw the 2016 Referendum result coming).

What I’m sure of is there will be more twists, turns and possible roadblocks before we reach  31st October 2019 (Halloween); which could finally be the culmination of this nightmare saga.

What do you think will happen? Will Brexit take place? If so, what type of Brexit?  Please leave any comments below.

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