During my walk along the White Cliffs from Dover to St. Margarets Bay on 09/09/20 I talk about the continual impact of Covid-19 and speculate about future changes to the world financial system.
During my walk along the White Cliffs from Dover to St. Margarets Bay on 09/09/20 I talk about the continual impact of Covid-19 and speculate about future changes to the world financial system.
During my walk with my son Edison on 14/08/20 I talk about how November may be a key month & look at the preparations being made for the next stage of Britain’s transition to exit the European Union.
So today at 11pm the United Kingdom will leave the European Union. A historic day which has been marked with mixed celebrations across the country and the minting of a new 50 pence piece. But what does it mean in reality?
In essence, very little will change in the coming months as the UK moves through its transition period to December 2020. No longer will the UK have voting rights in the Council or have MPs sitting in the European Parliament but the major issues of the free movement of people and goods will continue undisturbed until a withdrawal agreement is agreed.
I had written previously that I would be surprised if by January 31st 2020 a true Brexit had taken place and much work is still required. I argue that so far all this step has really achieved is the partial appeasement of the conflictive and emotional situation which has divided the British public since the referendum of 2016. Due to a Conservative majority in Parliament Boris Johnson will be confident that he can push through Brexit to completion but some important issues still need to be agreed and it remains unknown whether significant changes regarding immigration or trade will take place.
Thus, eleven more months of political debate and negotiation is on the horizon and despite today’s billing as the day the United Kingdom leaves the European Union, ‘Brexit Day’ is just another chapter in this long running saga.
So today was the day that the United Kingdom (UK) was set to leave the European Union. British Prime Minister Boris Johnson said that the UK would be leaving with or without a deal and he would rather be “dead in a ditch” than agree a Brexit extension. Yet a (fl)extension has been granted for the UK to leave on or before 31st January 2020.
I had written previously that I was sure there would be plenty of twists and turns ahead and there have been many. The prorogation of parliament, it’s subsequent appeal and reinstatement, the passing of the Benn Act making it illegal for the UK to leave without a deal, a new deal being agreed with the EU, Parliament passing an amendment witholding support until full legislation of the withdrawal agreement has been scrutinised and now the announcement that a general election will take place on December 12th. Much debate has been held, emotions fraught and column inches written and the forthcoming General Election is now a potential roadblock to prevent Brexit from ever taking place.
There have even been difficulties in agreeing the General Election date, with some politicians unhappy about a winter election. What is clear is that there are many politicians who are trying to stop Brexit (486 politicians want to remain opposed to 160 to leave was a meme I saw recently) and so far they have succeeded, twice.
Thus overall, since my last post on the subject in August I feel that the likelihood of Brexit taking place has decreased. Although it is difficult to predict, my view remains that by the beginning of February a true Brexit will not have taken place and for now, the saga continues.
I haven’t written in a while so thought it was time to update following some developments regarding Brexit.
First, a comment made by by Noel Gallagher, singer, songwriter & musician from the band Oasis to the Manchester Evening News:
“There’s only one f***ing thing worse than a fool who voted for Brexit. That’s the rise of the c*** trying to get the vote overturned”.
Certainly, the subject of Brexit is a very emotive and divisive topic.
Moving on, I predicted in May 2019 that pressure would increase on British PM Theresa May so much so that a second referendum or “People’s vote” would be called. Although pressure increased on Theresa May, events have occured differently and instead she felt the need to resign. Following a leadership vote within the Conservative Party the United Kingdom now has a new Prime Minister, Boris Johnson who says he will deliver Brexit on October 31st 2019.
Johnson speaks defiantly that a ‘no deal’ scenario is the government’s default position and Brexit will be achieved, yet, regrettably, so many politicians do not fulfil the promises they make when coming to power. If Brexit does happen we also do not know yet whether it will be ‘hard’ (changes to Immigration Rules and leaving the Customs Union) or ‘soft’ (with superficial changes made only). My opinion remains that a soft Brexit will take place regardless of whether a deal is made or not.
If a deal is made I expect to see Boris Johnson praised whilst if a ‘no deal’ does happen then I expect any negative consequences to be used to influence public opinion for a deal to be made. if this occurs I expect Boris Johnson to be lauded as a saviour for turning things around.
Personally, there seems too much at stake for the financial centre in the City of London for the politicians to risk a ‘no deal’ scenario which is why I still believe a solution will be found; however I have been wrong before (like so many I never saw the 2016 Referendum result coming).
What I’m sure of is there will be more twists, turns and possible roadblocks before we reach 31st October 2019 (Halloween); which could finally be the culmination of this nightmare saga.
What do you think will happen? Will Brexit take place? If so, what type of Brexit? Please leave any comments below.
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